Want to be in the loop?
subscribe to
our notification
Business News
VIETNAM TO EXPERIENCE IMPORT, EXPORT DIFFICULTIES BY END OF YEAR: MOIT
Việt Nam's import and export activities will face many difficulties and challenges in the last months of this year and into the next, according to Nguyễn Cẩm Trang, deputy director of the Import-Export Department, the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT).
Good supply disruptions and high input material prices for production make many major economies in the world, such as the US and EU, forecast challenges and risk falling into recession.
High inflation in markets, especially the main export markets of Việt Nam, also reduces the demand for consumer goods.
Meanwhile, consumer goods are essential export products of Việt Nam, such as textiles, footwear, and furniture. Therefore, those would also directly affect the export growth trend of these products shortly, Trang said.
BIDV Securities Joint Stock Company (BSC) has also stated that the growth rate of import and export slows down when the consumption of the American people has a downtrend amid a sharp increase in interest rates.
BSC offers two scenarios based on the possibility of a recession in the world's largest economy.
In the first scenario, if the US has an economic recession in 2022, Việt Nam could increase exports by 13.1 per cent and imports by 12.6 per cent.
In the second, if the US faces an economic recession in 2023, Việt Nam could increase exports by 18 per cent and imports by 17.3 per cent.
In the latest report, Rồng Việt Securities (VDSC) said there are many concerns to the domestic economy in the fourth quarter because the Fed has continued tightening monetary policy, leading to increasing discussion about risks of economic recession in the US.
Meanwhile, the European market is likely to deteriorate as the energy crisis increases in the winter.
Therefore, VDSC experts forecast that industrial production and export growth will slow down in the fourth quarter, but the level of decline will be moderate.
In addition, Trang has also pointed out that China is both a raw material supply market and a large export market for Việt Nam. Therefore, China's maintenance of strict measures to prevent and control the COVID-19 pandemic also affects the export activities and the supply of raw materials for Việt Nam and Việt Nam's goods exports to the world.
However, with participation in bilateral and multilateral Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and experiences in trade activities, Việt Nam may limit risks in exports.
The positive export results of the first nine months will support Việt Nam to reach the target on import and export in 2022 and even exceed the set targets.
In this context, Trang has recommended that businesses proactively update information about the world and import markets. Since then, they have changed management policies, production and business plans. At the same time, they should plan to diversify export and import markets.
"With many solutions, the Ministry of Industry and Trade always accompanies businesses, especially the system of Việt Nam trade offices abroad and the early warning system. They will promptly provide information on the market, helping the enterprises to soon diversify export and import markets towards the sustainable development of exports and imports," Trang said.
She said that import and export continued to be a bright spot in Vietnam's economic picture in the first nine months of 2022, with export value at an increase of 17.2 per cent to US$282 billion. As a result, the nation gained a trade surplus of over $6.8 billion.
The export growth of product groups, enterprise sectors, and markets was similar and stable. For example, the group of agriculture, forestry and fishery increased by nearly 15 per cent, while the group of processing industry rose by 17 per cent.
Meanwhile, the export growth also reached 15 per cent for domestic enterprises and 17 per cent for foreign direct investment (FDI) enterprises.
Notably, in the first nine months of 2022, Việt Nam's exports recorded double-digit growth in many markets, especially those with free trade agreements (FTAs) with Việt Nam, such as Canada, South Korea and Japan.
In the first nine months of 2022, the nation saw a trade surplus of $6.8 billion, and some major export markets still recorded positive growth figures against the same period of last year.
However, in September, export growth slowed and the growth rate decreased by 14 per cent compared to the previous month, mainly in electronics, computers and phones. Therefore, the growth rate in the third quarter also decreased against the previous quarter.
It should be noted that the third quarter is usually a quarter with a high trade surplus and contributes most to the trade surplus.
Source: VNS
Related News
![Card image cap](/uploads/Logo/Cathay%20%281%29.jpg)
ONE-TIME OFFER: COMPLEMENTARY CATHAY PACIFIC LOUNGE PASS
Begin your trip on the right note in Cathay Pacific’s first-ever ferry lounge, located at Shenzhen’s Shekou Cruise home port. Situated at the end of the pier, the ferry lounge offers a breathtaking 270-degree view of the sea. You can immerse yourself in sheer luxury and revel in the panoramic beauty. Catch a glimpse of Hong Kong in the distance.
![Card image cap](/uploads/news/Industrial%20Zone.jpg)
VIỆT NAM TARGETS FULL MOBILE BROADBAND COVERAGE ON HIGHWAYS, INDUSTRIAL ZONES BY 2025
By 2025, Việt Nam aims to achieve one hundred per cent mobile broadband coverage on all national highways, expressways and railways under a plan to enhance the quality of Việt Nam’s mobile telecommunications network by 2025, which has been approved by the Ministry of Information and Communications (MIC).
![Card image cap](/uploads/news/Investment6.jpg)
VIETNAM ONE OF FASTEST-GROWING E-COMMERCE MARKETS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA
The report released on July 16 highlighted that the total GMV of Southeast Asia’s eight leading e-commerce platforms rose to $114.6 billion in 2023, up 15 per cent from 2022. The key drivers for the region's e-commerce GMV expansion in 2023 are Vietnam and Thailand, growing 52.9 per cent and 34.1 per cent on-year, respectively.
![Card image cap](/uploads/news/Security.jpg)
2025 PIVOTAL FOR STOCK MARKET UPGRADE EFFORT
The Ministry of Finance (MoF) is expected to soon publish the entire content of the draft circular amending and supplementing four circulars on transactions, registration, depository, and clearing, as well as operations of securities companies and information disclosure. This move, along with feedback and explanations, aims to meet the criteria for upgrading Vietnam’s stock market.
![Card image cap](/uploads/news/bn-01.jpg)
VIETNAM INTENSIFIES E-COMMERCE TAX SCRUTINY
The department plans to offer guidance for and hold direct dialogues with e-commerce taxpayers to ensure compliance. Efforts will also include updating the e-commerce database, conducting risk analysis, and leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to manage data and issue alerts.
![Card image cap](/uploads/news/eco2.jpg)
FOOTWEAR EXPORTS SEEN REACHING US$27 BILLION THIS YEAR
This optimistic forecast reflects the industry’s efforts to expand and diversify its markets. Lefaso indicated that Vietnam’s footwear sector will concentrate on traditional markets like the U.S. and the European Union, alongside markets with free trade agreements to maximize opportunities.