FORECAST UPBEAT FOR BANKING INDUSTRY IN 2025

Commercial banks' pre-tax profits in 2025 are forecast to grow by 14.9 per cent year-on-year, while bad debt has peaked and is expected to decrease next year.

In a recent report, ACB Securities Companies (ACBS) analysts said that the net interest margin (NIM) of banks in 2025 will increase by five basis points over 2024.

At the same time, the current account savings account (CASA) ratio will likely improve and support the reduction of banks' capital costs, the report stated.

The ACBS analysts also said that in 2025, credit growth for the entire banking sector will likely be at 15 per cent, equivalent to the target for 2024 and higher than nominal GDP growth of about 10 per cent.

They explained that the real estate market has gradually recovered, while the Government has also been promoting public investment. These factors will help stimulate an increase in credit demand, which will support banks' lending yields in the second half of 2025.

“The economy is forecast to continue to recover in 2025 with the Government's GDP growth target of 6.5 - 7 per cent and striving for 7 - 7.5 per cent. The Government is also determined to boost public investment in 2025 and expects remarkable growth in the 2026 - 2030 period. Meanwhile, the corporate bond channel is not expected to recover soon. The factors therefore will help increase the role of the bank credit channel in the coming time,” the report stated.

Although bad debt increased slightly in two consecutive quarters, ACBS analysts believe there are signs that it seems to have peaked and may improve in 2025. The ratio of overdue debts, including restructured debts, has decreased gradually to 0.23 per cent of the total outstanding loans in the third quarter of 2024, lower than the historical average of about 0.5 per cent per quarter.

Notably, Group 2 debts (debts needing special attention) decreased by eight basis points in Q3 2024 and maintained a downward trend for two consecutive quarters thanks to the recovery of the retail customer group. According to Circular No. 02/2023/TT-NHNN, which allows commercial banks to reschedule the debt repayment period and maintain the debt group for certain sectors, restructured debts have also tended to decrease, accounting for only about 0.8 per cent.

Overall, the bad debt ratio of banks is forecast to decline to 1.5 per cent in 2025 from 1.6 per cent in 2024, the analysts said, adding that banks’ relatively low provision for risky debts in the 2023 - 2024 period will keep the provision pressure high in 2025.

According to the analysts, the banking industry's business results have remained sustainable this year, showing that the industry's resilience is now much better than it was during the 2012 - 2013 financial crisis.

Source: VIR

Related News

MEMBER CORNER / PROMOTIONS

VIETNAM'S MANUFACTURING STORY HAS CHANGED IN 2026

Vietnam is no longer attracting investment solely because of its competitive costs. Today, global manufacturers are increasingly choosing Vietnam for its expanding industrial ecosystem, resilient supply chains and growing role in high-value sectors such as semiconductors, electronics and advanced manufacturing.

Jul 24, 2026

BANKING / FINANCE / INSURANCE / TAX

VIETNAM NEEDS OVER $200BN FROM STOCK MARKET IN NEXT 5 YEARS

Speaking at the event, Bui Hoang Hai, vice-chairman of the State Securities Commission of Vietnam, said total investment demand in the 2026-30 period is estimated at VND38,000 trillion ($1.4 trillion). The state budget can only provide approximately VND8,500 trillion ($323 billion), or 20 percent, leaving the remaining 80 percent to be sourced from private and international capital.

Jul 23, 2026

VIETNAM ECONOMY INVESTMENT

HUNG YEN BUILDS DIGITAL FOUNDATIONS TO DRIVE LONG-TERM GROWTH

From strengthening data infrastructure to developing AI platforms, Hung Yen province is enhancing governance capacity while laying the groundwork for the growth of its digital economy. Hung Yen, about 50-60km southeast of Hanoi, has maintained steady momentum in implementing its digital transformation agenda, creating a stronger foundation for the province to advance science, technology, and innovation.

Jul 23, 2026

VIETNAM ECONOMY INVESTMENT

CHINESE INVESTMENT WAVE OPENS NEW DOORS

As Chinese companies move beyond factory relocation to ecosystem-driven investment, Vietnam has a rare opportunity to evolve from a low-cost production base into a strategic node in regional value chains. When global companies first diversified supply chains, the focus was largely on relocating manufacturing capacity.

Jul 23, 2026

VIETNAM ECONOMY INVESTMENT

VIỆT NAM STEPS UP EXPORT TO ACHIEVE US$550-BILLION TARGET

Việt Nam is intensifying efforts to sustain export momentum in the second half of 2026 as the country works towards its target of US$550 billion in export revenue for the year, despite continuing uncertainties in global trade. Statistics show that exports reached $266.5 billion in the first six months, meaning the economy needs to generate around $245.5 billion more during the remainder of the year to meet the annual goal.

Jul 23, 2026

VIETNAM ECONOMY INVESTMENT

ASIA POWERS VIETNAM’S SHRIMP BOOM, LEAVING THE WEST BEHIND

In the first half of 2026, Vietnam's shrimp exports surpassed the US$2.3 billion mark, driven largely by booming demand from China and a lobster craze. But behind that growth figure lies a lopsided picture: Asia is carrying the load, while the U.S. and Europe have yet to break out. These days, a container of frozen shrimp leaving a Ho Chi Minh City port is more likely to cross the East Vietnam Sea to Shanghai than the Pacific to Los Angeles.

Jul 23, 2026