THE STOCK MARKET AFTER TẾT 2025 PRESENTS BOTH CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

Việt Nam’s stock market following the 2025 Lunar New Year (Tết Nguyên Đán) presents a complex landscape of risks and potential gains, driven by foreign capital inflows, economic resilience, and looming corporate bond maturity pressures, according to one securities expert.

An investor monitors the stock market. — Photo baotintuc.vn

HÀ NỘI — The post-Tết stock market in 2025 presents a complex landscape, with both opportunities and challenges. While foreign capital inflows and economic growth offer optimism, concerns remain over corporate bond maturities and market liquidity, according to securities experts.

Historically, the market post-Tết is shaped by unique factors such as investor sentiment, liquidity shifts and domestic and global economic trends. The extended holiday often disrupts information flow, leaving market psychology vulnerable to external factors like interest rates, oil prices and global indices. Investors typically adopt a cautious stance, scrutinising these variables before making decisions.

Liquidity tends to dip during this period as retail and institutional investors gradually re-enter the market to assess fresh trends. Lower trading volumes heighten price volatility, particularly in speculative stocks.

A significant challenge in 2025 is the peak maturity of corporate bonds issued during 2020-2021, especially in the real estate sector. While some firms have proactively restructured debt or repurchased bonds early, others face liquidity risks, potentially dampening sentiment in property-related stocks.

However, there are also encouraging signs for the post-Tết period. The VN-Index closed at 1,265 points in the final trading session before the holiday (January 25, 2025), reflecting investor optimism for a bright start to the new year. A notable trend is the strong return of foreign capital.

Major investment funds are expected to continue disbursing funds, driven by the improved regulatory framework under the revised Securities Law, which took effect at the beginning of 2025. These regulatory enhancements are anticipated to boost market transparency, enhance investor protection, and strengthen foreign investor confidence, ultimately providing further support to the stock market.

Việt Nam’s economic outlook remains robust, with steady GDP growth, rising foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and a recovery in exports underpinned by free trade agreements. Key export industries such as textiles, seafood and electronics are expected to remain bright spots, supporting overall market performance. Additionally, increased consumer demand during the Tết holiday may boost stocks in retail, consumer goods and service sectors, making them a focus for investors.

According to Đào Hồng Dương, head of Industry and Stock Analysis at VPBank Securities (VPBankS), three out of the last five years have seen post-Tết market gains, with two years recording growth of over 4 per cent.

He noted that investor sentiment is generally more positive after Tết, aided by the release of corporate earnings reports and the start of the annual general meeting (AGM) season, which typically improves market liquidity.

In terms of sector performance, VN-Index post-Tết is expected to be driven by high-growth, attractively valued stocks, including banking, basic materials, food and beverage, retail, personal goods, and chemicals. Banking, in particular, is poised to lead the market, with profit growth projections of around 15 per cent for 2024 and over 17 per cent for 2025.

As the market transitions into the post-holiday phase, investors are advised to monitor liquidity trends and sector dynamics to capitalise on emerging opportunities while remaining cautious around potential risks. — VNS

Source: VNS