SOCIO-ECONOMIC SITUATION IN SIX BEGINNING MONTHS OF 2016

The growth in six beginning months of this year was higher than the growth in the same period of years 2012-2014[1], but there were signs of slowdown compared with the increase of 6.32% in the same period in 2015.

The sector of agriculture, forestry and fishery in six beginning months decreased from the same period last year mainly because the agriculture (accounting for over 75% of the value added of the sector I) dropped by 0.78%. The reason is that the winter-spring rice yield this year only reached 19.4 million tons, fell by 1.3 million tons (down 6.4%) compared to the same crop in 2015. The value added of the forestry sector increased by 5.75%; the value added of the fishery raised by 1.25%.

Of the industry and construction sector, the industry increased by 6.82%, much lower than the growth rate of 9.66% in the same period last year, mainly because the mining and quarrying reduced by 2.20%. The manufacturing went up by 10.1%, equivalent to the growth rate in 2015’s similar period. The power generation and supply sector and the water supply and sewage treatment sector grew fairly well with the corresponding growth rates of 11.70% and 8.10%. The construction climbed by 8.80% in six beginning months of the year.

The service sector in six beginning months of this year reached the highest growth rate since 2012 to present[2]. Of which, some industries had good growth from the identical period last year: The wholesale and retail increased by 8.1%; the finance, banking and insurance by 6.1%; the information and communication by 8.76%; the health care and social relief by 7.30%; the art, games and entertainment by 7.20%; the eduction and training by 7.15%. The real estate business gained the increase of 3.77%, this is the highest growth rate since 2011 to present[3].

About the structure of economy in six beginning months of 2016, the sector of agriculture, forestry and fishery accounted for 15.74%; the industry and construction accounted for 32.94%; the service represented 41.01% (Product taxes less subsidies on production accounted for 10.31%).

In terms of GDP to use in the first six months of the year, the final consumption rose 6.98% against the identical period in 2015, contributed 5.09 percentage points; accumulated assets grew by 10.00%, contributed 2.65 percentage points; trade balance of goods and services reduced 2.22 percentage points of the overall growth rate.
   
+ Gross Domestic Products in the first 6 months of 2016

2. Production of agriculture, forestry and fishery

The production value of the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector at 2010 comparative prices in the first six months of this year was estimated to reach 397.4 trillion dongs, went down by 0.1% from the similar period last year, of which the agriculture gained 297.2 trillion dongs, decreased by 0.7%; the forestry achieved 13.3 trillion dongs, increased by 5.8%; the fishery obtained 86.9 trillion dongs, went up by 1.3%.

a. Agriculture

The whole country’s estimated winter-spring rice cultivated area this year reached 3081.5 thousand hectares, down 31.3 thousand hectares from the same crop last year; the productivity of winter-spring rice was estimated to gain 6290 kilograms per hectares, down 360 kilograms per hectares; the yield achieved 19.4 million tons, down 1.3 million tons.

As of mid-June, localities over the country sowed 1816.5 thousand hectares of summer-autumn rice, equaling 98.1% against the similar period last year, of which the Mekong Delta gained 1521.5 thousand hectares, equaling 102.9%. Up to the present time, there have been 314.6 thousand hectares of early summer-autumn rice ready for harvest in the Mekong Delta, up 42.9% from the same period in 2015.

Output of live-weight buffalo meat for slaughter in six beginning months of the year was estimated to reach 49.7 thousand tons, down 0.5%; output of live-weight beef gained 183.4 thousand tons, up 2%; output of live-weight pork achieved 2.15 million tons, up 4.7%; poultry meat production attained 541.3 thousand tons, up 4.9%.

b. Forestry

In six beginning months of the year, the newly concentrated planted forest area was estimated to reach 86.9 thousand hectares, a rise of 2.2% compared to the same period last year; wood production gained 3844 thousand m3, a rise of 10.8%; firewood production gained 15 million ster, an increase of 0.7%.

Damaged forest area over the country in six months was 2599 hectares, 3 times as high as it was in the same period last year, of which the burnt forest area was 1955 hectares, 3.5 times as high as the burnt area in the same period last year; destroyed area was 644 hectares, 2.2 times.

c. Fishery

Fishing production in six beginning months of the year was estimated to reach 3131.3 thousand tons, up 1.9% from the same period last year, of which fish gained 2309.4 thousand tons, up 2.2%; shrimp achieved 306 thousand tons, down 2.5%. The area of aquaculture in six months was estimated at 893 thousand hectares, fell by 3% against the same period last year; production of aquaculture gained 1586.4 thousand tons, up 0.7%.

Production of fishing caught in the first 6 months of the year achieved an estimate of 1544.9 thousand tons, up 3.2% over the identical period last year, of which sea catching was estimated to reach 1459.5 thousand tons, up 3.4%.
   
+ Production value of agriculture, forestry and fishery at constant 2010 prices
+ Production of 2016 winter-spring crop
+ Cultivated area, productivity and yield of winter-spring rice in 2016 by localities
+ Fishing production in 6 months of 2016

3. Industry

Generally, in six beginning months of this year, Industrial Production Index (IPI) increased by 7.5% from the same period last year (9.7% increase in 2015’s similar period), of which the manufacturing climbed by 10.1%; the electricity power generation and distribution rose 11.7%; the water supply and sewage treatment went up by 8.1%; the mining and quarrying fell by 2.2% (mainly because the extraction of crude oil went down by 6.1%).

Consumption index for the whole manufacturing in five beginning months of the year increased by 8.8% over the identical period in 2015. Stock index for the entire manufacturing as of June 01, 2016 went up by 9% from the same period in 2015. Average stock rate for the whole manufacturing in five beginning months of 2016 was 71.5%.

The number of laborers working in industrial enterprises as of June 01, 2016 rose 5.9% compared to the same period last year, of which the State enterprise sector decreased by 0.4%; the non-State enterprise sector increased by 3.6%, and the FDI sector climbed by 8.9%.

+ Industrial Production Index
+ Main industrial products
+ Consumption and stock indexes of the manufacturing
+ Labor employed index (LEI) for industrial enterprises

4. Operation of enterprises

a. Business registration situation[4]

Generally, in six beginning months of this year, the country had 54501 enterprises registered for new establishment with a total registered capital of 427.8 trillion dongs, an increase of 20% in the number of businesses and a rise of 51.5% in the registered capital against the similar period in 2015. The average registered capital per enterprise reached 7.8 billion dongs, up 26.2%. Besides, 16125 times of enterprises changed to raise the capital with the total added capital of 774.7 trillion dongs, bringing the total of registered and additional capital in 2016’s six beginning months to 1202.5 trillion dongs.

The number of re-operated enterprises in six beginning months of the year was 14902 enterprises, up 75.2% from the identical period last year. The number of enterprises which finished the procedure for dissolving, terminating business activities in six months was 5507 ones, increased by 17% from the same period last year, of which there were 5129 enterprises with registered capital of less than 10 billion dongs, accounting for 93.1% and up 16.9%. The number of enterprises having difficulty forced to temporarily cease operations in six beginning months of this year was 31119 ones, an increase of 15% over the identical period last year, of which there were 12203 enterprises registered for time-limited temporary cessation of operations, up 37.1% and 18916 enterprises suspended businesses waiting for closing the enterprise code or without registration, up 4.2%.

b. Business trends of enterprises

Results of the business trend survey from manufacturing enterprises in the second quarter of 2016 showed that 41.8% of enterprises assessed the situation of business and production in the second quarter of this year more positive than the previous quarter; 18.9% had difficulties and 39.3% had the stable business and production situation. It is expected for the third quarter in comparison with the second quarter of this year: 47.7% of enterprises evaluated trends to be better; 13.2% of enterprises forecasted to be more difficult and 39.1% of enterprises thought that their business and production situation may be stable.

About the general trend in the second half of 2016, most of enterprises forecasted the business and production situation would be more positive than the first half of the year, of which 55.4% of enterprises forecasted the volume of production would go up; 9.3% evaluated the production volume would go down and 35.3% thought it would be stable. Regarding purchase orders, 48.5% of enterprises expected the number of purchase orders would increase; 9.5% expected the number of purchase orders would drop; and 42.0% thought that they would have stable number of orders. About the number of export orders, the corresponding forecast is 42.1%; 9.4% and 48.5%. Regarding the labor scale, 26.5% of enterprises expected they would increase the labor scale; 7.0% thought that they would reduce it; and 66.5% would have no change in the labor scale.

5. Service activities

Generally, in six months, total estimated retail sales of consumer goods and services reached 1724 trillion dongs, up 9.5% compared to the same period last year. If the price factor were excluded, the growth rate would be 7.5%, lower than the increase of 8.8% in the same period in 2015.

Passenger carriage in six beginning months of the year was estimated to reach 1805.2 million passengers, raised by 9.2% and 84.2 billion passengers-kilometers, by 8.8% from the same period last year. Cargo carriage in the first six months of the year reached 617 million tons, up 8% and 118.7 billion tons-kilometers, up 3.1% from the last year’ same period.

Telecommunication sales in six beginning months of 2016 was estimated to gain 190.8 trillion dongs, up 7.3% over the similar period in 2015. The total number of telephone subscribers as of the end of June 2016 was estimated to achieve 127.1 million subscribers, down 2%. The number of fixed broadband Internet subscribers as of above time was estimated to be 8.5 million subscribers, up 26.3%.

International visitors to Vietnam in six beginning months of the year was estimated to reach 4706.3 thousand arrivals, up 21.3% from the same period last year, of which visitors coming by airway gained 3920.1 thousand arrivals, up 25.9%; by road: 711.4 thousand arrivals, up 7.5%; by seaway: 74.8 thousand arrivals, down 27.8%.

+ Total retail sales of consumer goods and services
+ Carriage of passengers and cargos
+ International visitors to Vietnam

6. Banking, insurance

As of June 20, 2016, the total means of payment increased by 8.07% over the end of 2015 (5.09% increase in the same period last year). Capital mobilization of credit institutions grew by 8.23% (4.85% increase in the same period last year); credit growth of the economy reached 6.2% (6.28% rise in the same period last year). Deposit interest rate was relatively stable. VND deposit rates were commonly at 4.5% to 5.4% pa for tenor less than 6 months; 5.4% to 7.2% pa for tenor more than 6 months.

Insurance premium revenues of the whole market in the second quarter of 2016 were estimated to rise by 26% over the same period last year, of which non-life insurance premium revenues grew by 16%; life insurance premium revenues increased by 35%.

7. Construction, investment

a. Construction

The production value of construction at current prices in the first half of 2016 reached 456 trillion dongs, of which the State sector gained 35.9 trillion dongs, accounted for 7.9%; the non-State sector achieved 394.2 trillion dongs, accounted for 86.4%; and the FDI sector obtained 25.9 trillion dongs, accounted for 5.7%.

The production value of construction in six months at 2010 comparative prices obtained 360.9 trillion dongs, up 8.7% over the same period last year, of which the State sector gained 28.9 trillion dongs, up 1.8%; the non-State sector achieved 311 trillion dongs, up 10.7%; and the FDI sector obtained 21 trillion dongs, down 8.4%.

b. Development investment

Estimated realized social investment capital in the first half of this year at current prices reached an estimate of 618.2 trillion dongs, went up by 11.7% over the similar period last year and equaled 32.9% of GDP, of which the State sector’s capital gained 229.3 trillion dongs, accounted for 37.1% of the total capital and increased by 6.5% from the identical period last year; the non-State sector’s capital obtained 230.7 trillion dongs, took 37.3% and grew by 14.7%; the FDI sector’s capital attained 158.2 trillion dongs, represented 25.6% and raised by 15.6%.

From the beginning of the year to June 20, 2016, FDI attracted 1145 newly licensed projects with the total registered capital of US$ 7496.9 million, up 51.3% in the number of projects and up 95.3% in the registered capital against the similar period in 2015. At the same time, there were 535 times of license-granted projects from the previous years which registered to raise capital with additional capital of US$ 3787.8 million. Thus, the total registered capital of both newly and additionally financed projects reached US$ 11284.7 million, grew by 105.4% against the last year’s same period. Realized FDI capital in six beginning months of 2016 was estimated to gain US$ 7.3 billion, rose 15.1% from 2015’s similar period.

+ Realized social investment capital at current prices
+ Realized investment capital under the State budget
+ Licensed FDI projects from 01 January to 20 June 2016
 
8. Government revenues and expenditures

Total estimated government revenues from the beginning of the year to June 15, 2016 achieved an estimate of 425.6 trillion dongs, equaled 42% of the annual estimate, of which domestic revenues reached 343.8 trillion dongs, equaled 43.8%; collecting from crude oil achieved 17.7 trillion dongs, equaled 32.5%; from export-import balance gained 63 trillion dongs, equaled 36.6%. 

Total government expenditures from the beginning of the year to June 15, 2016 reached an estimate of 508.5 trillion dongs, equaling 39.9% of the yearly estimate. Of which, spending for development investment achieved over 74.5 trillion dongs, equaling 29.2%; spending for economic and social development, national defense and security, state management gained 363.4 trillion dongs, equaling 44.1%; paying debts and aids 68 trillion dongs, equaling 43.8%.

9. Exports, imports

a. Exports and imports of goods

Generally, in the first half of this year, export turnovers was estimated to reach US$ 82.2 billion, increased by 5.9% from the same period last year, of which the domestic economic sector achieved US$ 23.7 billion, increased by 3.3%; the FDI sector (including crude oil) gained US$ 58.5 billion, grew by 6.9%. If the price factor were excluded, export turnovers in six months would gain US$ 85.5 billion, up 10.1% over the same period in 2015.

Generally, in six beginning months of the year, import turnovers reached US$ 80.7 billion, down 0.5% over the same period last year[5],

of which the domestic economic sector gained US$ 33.4 billion, up 1.3%; the FDI sector achieved US$ 47.3 billion, down 1.8%. If the price factor were excluded (average export price went down by 7.8%), import turnovers in six months would gain US$ 87.5 billion, up 7.9% over the same period in 2015[6].

Generally, in six beginning months of 2016, trade surplus was US$ 1.5 billion, of which the domestic economic sector had trade deficit of US$ 9.7 billion; the FDI sector had trade surplus of US$ 11.2 billion.

+ Exports
+ Imports

b. Exports and imports of services

Service exports in the first six months of 2016 were estimated to reach US$ 6.0 billion, up 10.5% over the same period last year, of which travel service exports gained US$ 4.1 billion, accounted for 68.1% of total turnovers and went up by 14.3% from the same period in 2015. Estimated service imports in the first six months of the year achieved US$ 8.2 billion, up 4.2% over the similar period last year, of which transportation service imports gained US$ 4.2 billion, accounted for 51.5% of turnovers and reduced by 0.2%. Trade deficit of services in six beginning months of the year was US$ 2.2 billion.

10. Price indexes

a. Consumer price indexes (CPI), gold and US dollar price indexes

CPI in June 2016 grew by 0.46% from the previous month and by 2.35% over December 2015, on average CPI increased by 0.39% per month. Average CPI in six beginning months of 2016 climbed by 1.72% against the identical period in 2015.

Core inflation in June 2016 increased by 0.13% compared to the previous month and by 1.88% over the same period last year. Average core inflation in six beginning months of 2016 rose 1.80% against the similar period in 2015.

Gold price index in June 2016 decreased by 0.01% from the previous month, increased by 9.67% over December 2015 and by 4.04% against the same period last year. US dollar price index in June 2016 climbed by 0.09% from the previous month, went down by 0.80% from December 2015 and rose by 2.52% compared to 2015’s similar period.

b. Producer price indexes (PPI)

PPI of agricultural, forestry and fishing goods in the second quarter of 2016 increased by 2.17% over the previous quarter and by 0.90% from the same period last year; corresponding PPI of industrial goods in the second quarter climbed by 0.07% and went down by 1.29%; corresponding price indexes of fuels and materials used for production in the second quarter rose by 0.06% and declined by 1.59%. Transportation and warehouse price indexes in second quarter of 2016 dropped by 1.15% from the previous quarter and by 2.35% against the similar period last year; PPI of services in the second quarter jumped by 0.80% and by 2.12%.

Merchandize export price indexes in the second quarter of 2016 increased by 0.90% over the previous quarter and fell by 2.88% from the same period last year. The second quarter’s corresponding merchandize import price indexes moved up by 0.26% and moved down by 6.66%. Commodity term of trade[7] in the second quarter of this year rose by 0.64% against the previous quarter and by 4.06% over the same period in 2015.

+ Consumer price indexes, gold, US dollar price indexes and core inflation in June 2016
+ Producer Price Index of agricultural, forestry and fishing products in the 2nd Quarter of 2016
+ Producer Price Index of industrial products in the 2nd Quarter of 2016
+ Price index of materials, fuel used for production in the 2nd Quarter of 2016
+ Merchandise export price index in the 2nd Quarter of 2016
+ Merchandize Import Price Index in the 2nd Quarter of 2016
+ Commodity term of trade in the 2nd Quarter of 2016
+ Transportation and warehouse price index in the 2nd Quarter of 2016
+ Producer price index on services in the 2nd Quarter of 2016

11. Population, labor and employment

The country’s average population in 2016 was estimated to be 92.70 million persons, rose 987.8 thousand persons, equivalent to 1.08% increase over 2015. Of which urban population was 32.06 million persons, accounted for 34.6%; rural population was 60.64 million persons, represented 65.4%; male population was 45.75 million persons, took 49.4%; female population was 46.95 million persons, accounted for 50.6%.

As of July 01, 2016, the country’s labor force aged 15 and above was estimated to be 54.4 million persons, rose 654.3 thousand persons compared to 2015’s similar period. Labor force within working age as of above time was estimated to be 47.5 million persons, rose 263.6 thousand persons from the same period in 2015.

Laborers aged 15 and above having jobs in the first half of this year reached an estimate of 53.3 million persons, of which 22.5 million persons were working in the sector of agriculture, forestry and fishery, accounted for 42.2% of the total; 13.0 million ones were working in the sector of industry and construction, represented 24.4%; the sector of services had 17.8 million laborers, took 33.4%.

Unemployment rate of working-age labor in six beginning months of 2016 was 2.27%, of which it was 3.18% for the urban area; 1.81% for the rural area. Unemployment rate of the youth aged 15-24 was 6.83%, of which it was 11.00% for the urban area; 5.24% for the rural area. Underemployment rate of working-age labor in the first six months of the year was 1.73%, of which it was 0.72% for the urban area; 2.28% for the rural area.

12. People’s life and social security

In six beginning months of the year, the country had 201.8 thousand times of households suffering from food shortage, up 9.9% compared to the similar period last year, corresponding to 832.6 thousand persons suffering from food shortage, up 10.1%. The food shortage concentrated in provinces of the Northern midlands and mountain areas, North Central and Central coastal areas, and Central Highlands. To overcome this problem, from the beginning of the year, all administrative levels, sectors and organizations from central to local level provided difficult families with 14 thousand tons of grain food.

Social security works continued to be considered to implement. According to preliminary report, the total funding for social security and poverty reduction in the first six months of 2016 was 4376 billion dongs, of which 2918 billion dongs were used to support policy beneficiary objects; 1050 billion dongs were used to support poor households; and 408 billion dongs were used for other famine and social relief.

13. Epidemic diseases and food poisoning

In six beginning months of the year, the country had over 16.3 thousand cases of hand, foot, mouth disease; 39.3 thousand cases of hemorrhagic fever (12 died); 135 cases of typhoid; 284 cases of virus encephalitis (04 died); 24 cases of meningococcal disease (03 died).

From December 17, 2015 to June 17, 2016, the country had 53 serious cases of food poisoning, infecting 2187 persons, of which 04 cases died.

Total number of alive HIV-infected persons over the country as of June 17, 2016 was 228.2 thousand persons, of which 85.8 thousand cases turned to AIDS. The number of persons died of AIDS over the country as of above time was 87.6 thousand persons.

14. Traffic accidents

Generally, in six beginning months of 2016, the country had 10227 cases of traffic accidents, including 5039 cases of traffic accidents and 5188 cases of traffic crashing, killing 4362 persons, injuring 2906 persons and injuring slightly 6033 others. In comparison with the same period last year, cases of the traffic accidents in six months decreased by 8.5% (cases of traffic accidents less serious and more reduced by 2.4%; cases of traffic collision by 13.8%); both the death and injured persons declined by 2.6%; and slightly injured persons decreased by 15.8%. On average, each day in six beginning months of the year, the country had 56 cases of traffic accident, including 28 cases of traffic accidents and 28 cases of traffic crashing, killing 24 persons and injuring 16 persons and injuring somewhat 33 persons.

15. Damage by natural calamity

In six beginning months of the year, long extreme cold weather along with rainstorm and tornadoes affected the production and people’s life in many provinces and cities over the country. According preliminary report, natural calamity made 34 persons died and lost, 118 persons injured; over 900 thousand houses collapsed, swept away and 35.7 thousand houses flooded, blown off, unroofed; 19.6 thousand hectares of rice, 13 thousand hectares of vegetables and 2000 hectares of aquaculture damaged; 17 thousand heads of cattle, 12.7 thousand fowls and over 730 tons of fishery died. The total value of damage caused by the disaster in six beginning months of the year was estimated 1.4 trillion dongs.

In particular, serious drought and saltwater intrusion in the South Central Coast, the Central Highlands, South East and the Mekong Delta, the pinnacle of these problems took place in March, April and the beginning of May, influenced significantly people’s life and production in those localities. As of the end of May 2016, 385.8 thousand households were short of running water for their life; 249.9 thousand hectares of rice, 19 thousand hectares of vegetables, and 30.5 thousand hectares of fruit trees and 6900 hectares of aquaculture were damaged. Total damage value was estimated about 15.2 trillion dongs. To deal with impacts of drought and saltwater intrusion, the Government and ministries, sectors directed and deployed many urgent solutions such as supporting affected localities a total expense of 2.2 trillion dongs.

16. Fire and explosion, environment protection

In six beginning months of the year, 7079 cases of violating regulations of environment protection were found, of which 2501 cases were treated with total fine of over 391 billion dongs.

Generally, in the first six months of the year, the country had 1826 cases of fire and explosion, killing 46 persons and injuring 191 others, the value of damage was estimated nearly 860 billion dongs.

GENERAL STATISTICS OFFICE

[1] The growth rate of GDP in 6 beginning months in years 2012-2014 in turn were 4.93%; 4.90%; 5.22%. 
[2] Growth rates of value added of the service in 6 beginning months of years were as follows: 6.11% in 2012; 6.13% in 2013; 5.82% in 2014; and 5.86% in 2015.
[3] The growth rate of the real estate business in 6 beginning months of years were as follows: 0.3% increase in 2011; 0.75% decrease in 2012; 0.76% increase in 2013; a rise of 1.87% in 2014; and 2.35% increase in 2015.
[4] Source: National Business Registration System, Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI).
[5] Import turnovers in six beginning months of 2015 rose by 17.1% from the previous year’s same period.
[6] Excluding the price factor, import turnovers in six beginning months of 2015 increased by 21.5% over the same period.
[7] Merchandize export price indexes compared with merchandize import price indexes.