SOCIO-ECONOMIC SITUATION IN 1ST QUARTER OF 2017

ECONOMIC GROWTH

Gross Domestic Products (GDP) Growth

GDP in 1st Quarter achieved an estimated growth of 5.10 percent against the same period last year, of which agriculture, forestry and fishery rose 2.03%, contributed 0.24 point per cent; industry and construction 4.17%, contributed 1.46 points percent; service 6.52%, contributed 2.65 points percent to the general growth. This year’s 1st quarter growth was higher thanh that in 2012-2014[1], but lower than that of 6.12% in 2015 and 5.48% in 2016.

In the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector, the agricultural sector showed positive signs with an increase of 1.38% over the same period last year (in the first quarter of 2016 it decreased sharply by 2.69%), contributed 0.12 percentage point to the overall growth rate; Forestry sector increased 4.94%, contributing 0.03 percentage point; The fishery sector increased by 3.50%, contributing 0.09 percentage points.

In the industrial and construction sectors, the industry increased by only 3.85% over the same period last year, the lowest level since 2011, in which the mining sector plummeted by 90% year on year, reducing 0.76 percentage points of general growth; Manufacturing grew 8.30% (down significantly from 9.70% in the same period of last year and 8.94% in the same period of 2016), contributing 1.46 percentage points. Construction rose 6.10%, lower than the 8.60% increase in the same period of 2016, contributing 0.30 percentage point.

In the service sector, the contribution of some industries accounted for a large proportion of the overall growth rate: Wholesale and retail sales increased 7.38% over the same period last year, contributing 0.77 percentage points to Overall growth; Accommodation and food services increased by 6.03%, contributing 0.25 percentage points; Financial, banking and insurance activities increased 7.76%, contributing 0.31 percentage point; Real estate business rose by 3.72%, contributing 0.23 percentage points.

In terms of economic structure in the first quarter of this year, agriculture, forestry and fisheries accounted for 11.19%; The industry and construction sector accounts for 34.06%; Service sector accounts for 43.99%; Product tax excluding product subsidies accounted for 10.76% (corresponding figures for the same period of 2016 are: 11.42%, 34.37%, 43.54%, 10.67%).


In terms of GDP use in the first quarter, final consumption increased 6.73% over the same period in 2016, contributing 7.25 percentage points to the overall increase (of which final consumption of households contributes 6.65 percentage points); Asset accumulation rose 8.50%, contributing 2.27 percentage points; The difference in the import and export of goods and services in trade deficit made the general growth rate decrease 4.42 percentage points.

+ Gross Domestic Products in the first quarter of 2017

Agriculture, forestry and fishery

Agriculture

Up to the middle of March, the country cultivated 3,040.9 thousand ha of winter-spring paddy, equaling 100.6% of same period last year, including: Northern provinces cultivated 1,114.3 thousand ha, equaling 101 , 3%; Southern provinces cultivated 1,926.6 thousand ha, equaling 100.3%.

As of mid March, 341.4 thousand hectares of maize were planted in the whole country, equaling 98.3% of the same period last year; 65.9 thousand ha of sweet potato, equaling 95.5%; 106.2 thousand ha of peanuts, equaling 84.5%; 24.9 thousand ha soybean, equal to 73%; 531.2 thousand hectares of vegetables, by 102.5%.

Buffalo nationwide in March was estimated to fall by 0.1% over the same period last year; Cattle increased by 1.5% -2.2%; Pigs increased by 1.5% -2.0%; Poultry up 3.2% -3.8%. The production of live-weight of buffalo meat in the first three months increased by 0.2% over the same period last year; cattle meat sales increased by 3.6%; pig meat production increased 4.3%; Poultry meat sales increased by 5.3%.

Forestry

The area of ​​concentrated forestation in the first three months of the year was estimated at 28.5 thousand hectares, an increase of 7.5% over the same period last year; The number of scattered planted trees was 16.1 million, up 1.9%; Timber production reached 1,684 thousand m3, up 5.4%; Firewood production was 7.8 million m3, up 1.3%.

In the first quarter, the damaged forest area was 200.4 ha, down 76% against the same period last year, of which burnt area was 97.7 ha, down 86.5%; The area of ​​cleared forest was 102.7 ha, up 5.8%.

Fishery

Seafood output in the first three month was estimated at 1,320.8 thousand tons, up 2.9% against same period last year, of which fishes reached 978.6 thousand tons, up 3.4%; Shrimp reached 131.5 thousand tons, up 5.3%.

Production of aquaculture in the first three months was estimated at 566.8 thousand tons, increasing by 2.1% over the same period last year. Production of fishery products in the first three months was estimated at 754.1 thousand tons, up 3.5% over the same period last year, of which fishes reached 577 thousand tons, up 4.8%; Shrimp reached 33.7 thousand tons, up 1% (Seafood production was estimated at 720 thousand tons, up 3.7%).
     
+ Agricultural production as of March 15, 2016
+ Fishery output in the first quarter of 2017
 
Industry

In the first quarter of 2017, industrial production index increased 4.1% over the same period last year, much lower than the increase in the same period last year. In industrial sectors, the manufacturing sector grew by 8.3%, contributing 5.9 percentage points to the overall increase; Power production and distribution increased by 9.4%, contributing 0.6 percentage points; Water supply and waste and waste water disposal rose by 7.2%, contributing 0.1 percentage point; Mining decreased 11.4%, making the overall increase fall 2.5 percentage points.

Consumption index of the whole processing industry in the first 2 months increased 7.9% over the same period last year. Inventory index of the whole processing industry as of 1/3/2017 increased by 12.5% ​​compared to the figures in the same period of 2016; The average inventory level in the first two months of 2017 is 74.3%.

+ Industrial production index
+ Major industrial products
+ Consumption and inventory index of processing industry
+ Labor employed index of industrial enterprises

Operation of the business

Business registration status [2]

In the first quarter of this year, there were 26,478 newly established registered enterprises nationwide with a total registered capital of VND271.2 trillion, up 11.4% in enterprises and 45.8% in capital over the same period in 2016; The average registered capital of newly established enterprises was VND10.2 billion, up 30.9%. If including VND325.4 trillion of enterprises who changed to increase their capital, the total registered capital added to the economy in the first quarter of 2017 is VND596.6 trillion. The total number of registered employees of newly established enterprises in the first quarter was 291.5 thousand people, equaling 90.5% of same period last year. In the first three months of the year, 9,271 businesses returned to work, down 1.1% over the same period last year, bringing the total number of newly established enterprises and enterprises back to operation in the first quarter to more than 35,700 businesses.

+ Number of businesses returning to operating by kind of activity
+ Number of enterprises temporarily ceased operations by kinds of activity
 
Business trends of the enterprise

The survey on business trends of manufacturing enterprises in the first quarter of 2017 showed that 33.7% of businesses rated their business performance in the first quarter of this year as better than last quarter; 24.5% of businesses assessed difficulties and 41.8% of businesses said that their business situation was stable. Expected quarter II compared with the first quarter of this year, 57.8% of businesses rated the trend will improve; 9.8% of businesses forecast more difficult and 32.4% of businesses said that the business situation will be stable.

Service activities

Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in the first quarter of 2017 were estimated at VND 921.1 trillion, up 9.2% over the same period last year, excluding the price increase of 6.2% (Lower than the 7.5% rise in the first quarter of 2016). By sector, retail sales in the first quarter of this year were estimated at VND 689.5 trillion, accounting for 74.9% of the total and up 9.8% over the same period last year. Of which, real food increased by 10.4%; Garment by 8.8%; Transportation by 8.2%; Utensils, appliances and household equipment by 7.3%; Cultural and educational items increased by 3.4%.

Passenger carriage in the first 3 months reached 969.9 million passengers, up 8.7% over the same period last year and 44.1 billion passengers-kilometers, up 9.4%. Cargo traffic in the first quarter reached 350.1 million tons, up 14.7% over the same period last year and 64.4 billion tons.km, up 6.7%.

Turnover from telecom activities in the first quarter of 2017 was estimated at VND96.4 trillion, up 6.7% over the same period last year. By the end of March 2017, the total number of telephone subscribers was estimated at 129.5 million, up 1.9% over the same period last year, of which handphone subscribers were 120.6 million, decreased by 0.6%; Fixed broadband Internet subscribers are estimated at 9.5 million, up 18.8%.

International visitors to Vietnam in the first 3 months were estimated at 3,212.5 thousand, increasing by 29% over the same period last year, of which arrivals by air reached 2,631.6 thousand, increasing by 32, 5%; By land reached 468.8 thousand, increasing by 7.6%; Arriving by sea reached 112.1 thousand, increasing by 66.2%.

+ Total retail sales and consumer service revenue
+ Pasenger and cargo transport
+ International passengers to Vietnam

MACRO-ECONOMIC STABILITY, INFLATION CONTROL

Banking and insurance

Up to March 16, 2017, the total means of payment increased 2.88% compared to the end of 2016 (same period last year increased 3.08%); Capital mobilization increased 2.43% (same period in 2016 increased 2.26%); Credit growth of the economy reached 2.81%.

The insurance market in the first 3 months maintained positive growth. Total market premiums for the first quarter of 2017 are estimated to increase by 20% over the same period of 2016, of which life insurance revenue rose 29%; Non-life insurance premiums increased by 15%.

Development Investment

Total investment capital in the first quarter at current prices was estimated at VND 297.8 trillion, up 8.6% over the same period last year and equivalent to 32% of GDP, including: capital from the state sector reached VND99.9 trillion, accounting for 33.5% of total capital and up 4.9% over the same period last year; Non-state sector reached VND 117.4 trillion, accounting for 39.4% and increasing by 13.8%; Foreign direct investment (FDI) reached VND80.5 trillion, accounting for 27.1% and 6.2% respectively.

The investment capital from the state budget in the first quarter was estimated at VND45.4 trillion, equaling to 15.6% of the yearly plan and up 5.3% against the same period last year, of which capital under central management reached VND 9.7 trillion, equaling 14.3% and increasing by 1.6%; capital under local management reached 35.7 trillion VND, equaling 16% and 6.4% respectively.

Foreign direct investment from the beginning of the year to March 20, 1977 attracted 493 new licensed projects with registered capital of US $ 2,917.2 million, up 4.2% in number of projects and 6.5% of registered capital over the same period of 2016. In addition, 223 projects licensed from the previous years registered to adjust the investment capital with an additional amount of $ 3,940 million. In the first 3 months, there were 1,077 shares of foreign investors with the total capital contribution of $ 852.9 million. Thus, the total registered capital of new projects, supplementary capital and investment in the form of capital contribution, purchase of shares in the first 3 months reached $ 7,710.1 million, up 77.6% compared with in the same period last year. Foreign direct investment in the first quarter was estimated at $ 3,620 million, up 3.4% over the same period in 2016.

State budget revenues and expenditures

Total state budget revenue from the beginning of the year to March 15, 2017 was estimated at VND 216.7 trillion, equaling 17.9% of the yearly estimate, of which domestic revenue was VND 175.5 trillion, equaling to 17.7%; Revenue from crude oil was 9 trillion VND, equaling 23.4%; The budget revenue from import and export activities was 32.2 trillion VND, equaling 17.9%.

Total state budget spending from the beginning of the year to March 15, 2017 was estimated at VND 229.1 trillion, equaling 16.5% of the yearly estimate, of which development spending was VND 32.6 trillion, By 9.1%; Regular expenditures were VND 173.2 trillion, equaling 19.3%; Interest payment was 23 trillion VND, equaling 23.2%. Loan payments from the beginning of the year to 15/3/2017 were estimated at VND38.4 trillion, equaling 23.4% of the yearly estimate.

+ Implemented social development investment capital
+ Implemented investment capital from the state buget
+ Lisenced foreign direct investment, 01/1 - 20/3/2017
 
Export and import of goods and services

Export and import of goods

Export turnovers in the first quarter of 2017 were estimated at US$ 43.7 billion, up 12.8% against the same period last year, of which the domestic economic sector gained US$ 12.3 billion, an increase of 12.1% %; Foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) reached US$ 31.4 billion, an increase of 13%. Excluding the price factor, export turnover in the first quarter increased 6.7% over the same period in 2016.

Import turnovers in the first quarter of this year reached US $ 45.6 billion, up 22.4% against the same period last year, of which the domestic economic sector imported US $ 18.4 billion, up 24.4%; The foreign invested sector imported US$ 27.2 billion, an increase of 21.1%. Excluding the price factor, import turnover in the first quarter increased by 19.9% ​​over the same period last year.

The balance of trade in goods in the first quarter of 2017 had a trade deficit of US$ 1.90 billion, of which domestic economic sector had a trade deficit of US$ 6.06 billion; The foreign invested sector (including crude oil) had a trade surplus of US$ 4.16 billion.

+ Exports
+ Imports
 
Export and import of services

Export turnover of services in the first quarter of 2017 was estimated at US$ 3.3 billion, up 9.3% over the same period last year, of which tourism services reached $ 2.2 billion, accounting for 68% of total turnover And up 9.3%; Transportation services reached $ 625 million, representing 19.1% and up 7.4%. Services import turnover was estimated at US$ 3.8 billion, up 2.2% over same period last year, of which transport services reached US$ 1.8 billion, accounted for 47.6% of total turnover and decreased 2.7%; Tourism services reached $ 1.1 billion, accounting for 27.8% and increasing 13.3%. Trade deficit in the first quarter was US$ 500 million, equaling 15.2% of service exports.

Price index

Consumer price index

Consumer price index (CPI) in March 2017 increased 0.21% over the previous month. Average CPI in the first quarter of this year increased by 4.96% compared to the same period in 2016. CPI in March 1977 increased 0.90% compared with December 2016 and increased 4.65% over the same period last year.

Core inflation in March 2017 unchanged from the previous month and up 1.60% over the same period last year. The average inflation in the first three months of 2017 rose 1.66% over the same period in 2016.

+ Consumerprice index, gold price index, US$ price index and basic inflation index in March 2017

Gold and US$ price index

Domestic gold prices fluctuate in world gold prices. Gold price index in March 2017 decreased by 0.28% over the previous month; rose by 1.98% compared to December 2016 and by 5.00% over the same period last year. US$ price index in March 2017 increased by 0.41% over the previous month, by  0.26% compared to December 2016 and by 1.92% over the same period in 2016.

Producer price index and export price index

The price index of agricultural, forestry and fishery production in the first quarter of 2017 increased by 1.41% over the previous quarter and 5.13% over the same period last year; Industrial production price index rose 0.34% and 1.96%; Raw material, fuel and material price index increased by 1.18% and 0.66%; Freight  and storage rates increased by 1.63% and 0.85%; Producer price index rose by 1.36% and 3.72% respectively.

Export price index in the first quarter of this year increased by 1.58% over the previous quarter and 5.71% over the same period last year; Import price index increased 1.45% and 3.23%. The trade exchange rate [3] in the first quarter of this year increased by 0.12% against the previous quarter and 2.40% over the same period last year.
 
+ Agricultural, forestry and fishery price indexes
+ Price index of industrial production
+ Price index of raw materials, fuels, materials for production
+ Export price index
+ Import price index
+ Commodity exchange rates
+ Freight rates and warehousing index
+ Service price index
 
SOCIAL ISSUES

Labor, employment

The number of laborers aged 15 and over in the country by April 1, 2017 is estimated at 54.5 million, an increase of 104.9 thousand over the same period in 2016, including: 28 0 million male workers, accounting for 51.4% and  26.5 million female workers, accounting for 48.6%. In terms of regions, the labor force from 15 years of age and over in urban areas was 18.1 million, accounting for 33.2% and 36.4 million people, accounting for 66.8% in the rural area. At that time, the labor force in working age was estimated at 47.9 million, an increase of 212.5 thousand over the same period last year, of which male labor was 25.8 million, accounting for 53, 9%; 22.1 million female workers, accounting for 46.1%. The labor force in working age in urban areas is 16.3 million, accounting for 34.0%; in the rural area: 31.6 million people, accounting for 66.0%.

The number of employed persons in the first quarter of this year was 53.4 million, including 21.7 million working in agriculture, forestry and fisheries, accounting for 40.6% of the total;  13.6 million people in the industry and construction sector, accounting for 25.5%; 18.1 million people in the service sector, accounting for 33.9%.

The unemployed rate of labor in the first quarter of 2017 is estimated at 2.30%, of which it is 3.21% in the urban area and 1.82% in the rural area. The youth unemployment rate (15-24 years) in the first quarter of 2017 is estimated at 6.96%,  of which it is 10.90% in the urban area and 5.57% in the rural area. The rate of underemployment of workers in the first quarter of this year is estimated at 1.74%, of  which the unemployment rate in urban areas is 0.80%; The unemployment rate in rural areas is 2.25%. The estimated rate of informal employees outside of agriculture, forestry and fishery households[4] in Quarter I of 2017 is 55,5%, of which it is 47.2% in the urban area and 63.0% in the rural area.

Residential living and social security

In the first quarter of 2017, the country had 76.3 thousand hunger families, decreasing by 26% over the same period last year and equaling 312.3 thousand hunger members, down 25.3%. To overcome hunger, at the beginning of the year, all levels, sectors and organizations from the central to local levels have provided food shortage families with  11.2 thousand tons of food and about VND1.1 billion.

According to the preliminary report, the total mobilized funds from the central budget, provinces, cities and organizations and individuals allocated for social protection and poverty reduction in the first 3 months of 2017 is 3,775 billion VND . In addition, 9.4 million health insurance cards, free health insurance books / cards have been donated to policy beneficiaries nationwide.

Educations

Up to the end of March 2017, 62 out of 63 provinces and centrally-run cities have achieved universal preschool education standards for children 5 years old[5]; 63/63 provinces and centrally-run cities meet the standard of primary education universalisation level 1, of which 12 provinces and cities are recognized to achieve the standard of primary education universalization level 3[6].

In 2016, vocational training institutions nationwide have recruited more than 2.1 million turns of people, reaching 96.5% of the plan, of which vocational colleges and vocational secondary schools enroll 238.7 thousand Number of people, reaching 95.5%; Primary vocational enrollment is 1.8 million, reaching 96.6%.

The entire vocational education system currently has 1,989 establishments, including 219 colleges; 303 professional secondary schools; 190 vocational colleges, 280 vocational schools and 997 vocational education centers.

Disease & food poisoning

In the first three months, the country had nearly 6.3 thousand cases of foot and mouth disease; 14.1 thousand cases of hemorrhage fever (2 deaths); 87 cases of typhoid; 73 cases of viral encephalitis; 10 cases of meningococcal disease and 16 cases of Zika virus infection. The epidemic of pertussis tends to develop complicated and risky outbreaks in the northern provinces due to cold weather and high humidity. Up to the middle of March, 114 cases of pertussis have been reported nationwide, of which five have died.

The total number of living HIV-infected people by March 17, 2017 was 215.9 thousand, of which 88.5 thousand turned to AIDS; The death toll from HIV / AIDS in the country to date was 90.3 thousand people.

As of 18/12/2016 to 17/3/2017, 21 cases of severe food poisoning occurred in the whole country, causing 641 cases of poisoning, of which 15 died. It is noteworthy that since the beginning of the year, there have been tens of methanol poisoning cases in the country with hundreds of victims.

Culture & sports

Cultural activities in the first three months of the year focused on celebrating the big holidays, major events of the country and organizing activities celebrating the Party, celebrate the New Lunar Year (Year of Chicken).

The mass sports movement took place in various localities with many activities such as the Olympic day for the health of the people; Sports Congresses at all levels; a coordinated program of physical education and sports with ministries, sectors and plans for swimming, Childhood and Child Drowning prevention in 2017; to run relay in response to 20th SEA Games  and 9th Para Games.

Sport achievements in the first three months gained impressive results, won 18 gold medals, 17 silver medals and 10 bronze medals in the international arena.

Traffic accident

In the first three months of 2017, there were 4,812 traffic accidents in the whole country, including 2,451 traffic accidents (from less serious and above) and 2,361 traffic collisions, 2,114 deaths, 1,032 were injured and 2,803 were slightly injured. Compared to the same period last year, the number of traffic accidents in the first three months of this year decreased by 3.5% (number of traffic accidents (from less serious and above) decreased by 2.9%, number of traffic collisions decreased 4.1%); Number of deaths decreased by 3.6%; The number of injured people decreased by  36.9% and the number of minor injuries by 2.9%. On average, 1 day in 3 months, 53 accidents occurred in the whole country, including 27 minor traffic accidents and 26 traffic crashes, killing 23 people, 11 people Injured and 31 injured slightly.

Only in the first three months of 2017, there were 43 rail traffic accidents, 37 dead and 18 injured. The accident occurred mainly at crossings between the railway and the crossroads of living quarters, including some serious accidents causing great damage to people and property.

Damage caused by natural disaster

In the first three months of 2017, tide, tornadoes and hail have affected production and peoples life in some localities. According to preliminary reports, natural disasters injured six people; 2.9 thousand houses flooded, landslided, roofs blown away; 3,2 thousand hectares of rice, 845 hectares of crops, 260 hectares of industrial crops, 360 hectares of forest trees, fruit trees and 326 hectares of aquaculture damaged. The total value of damage in the first 3 months is estimated at over VND57 billion..

Environmental protection and fire protection

In the first quarter of 2017, 4,022 cases of violations of regulations on environmental protection in the whole country were discovered, of which 3,427 cases were handled with a fine of nearly VND40 billion.

In the first quarter of this year, 1,293 fires and explosions occurred in the whole country, causing 33 deaths and 69 injuries, damage was estimated at VND684 billion. Compared with the same period last year, the number of fires and explosions increased by 37.7%, the number of deaths by 2.5 times, the number of injured people by 13.8%, and the estimated damage by 34.2%.

GENERAL STATISTICS OFFICE

[1] GDP growth in 1st quarter of some years: 2012 rose by 4.75%; 2013 by 4.76%; 2014 by 5.06%.

[2] Source: National Business Registration Information System, Ministry of Planning and Investment.

[3] Export price index compares with import price index.

[4] Informal employment outside of agriculture, forestry and fishery households those who do not work in the agriculturral gousehold and fall into one of the following three categories: (i) unpaid family ửokers; (ii) the owner ỏ cooperative member ò the establishment who há not registered the business and (iii) the employee is not entitled to enter into a labor contract or is entered into a fixed term contract but has not been paid social insurance in the compulsory form.

[5]Only Ninh Thuan has not been recognized as achieving universal preschool education standards for 5-year-old children.

[6]According to the Government’s Decree No.20/2014/ND-CP dated 24/3/2014 on the universalization of education and illiteracy elimination, and and the Ministry of Education’s Circular No. 07/2016/TT-BGDDTdated 22/3/2016 on the conditions of guatantee and content, procedures for checking the recognition as achieving universal education standards.