SO FAR, SO GOOD FOR 2025’S EXPORT FIGURES

Vietnam’s export sector delivered an upbeat performance in the first half of 2025, but the path to achieving full-year targets is proving increasingly challenging.

Data from the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) show that Vietnam’s total import-export turnover in the first six months of the year reached an estimated $426-430 billion, up 15.5-15.8 per cent on-year. Exports accounted for $215-217 billion of that total, marking an increase of 13.8-14 per cent, while the country maintained a trade surplus of $3.4-4 billion.

These figures represent a solid over-performance compared to the government’s export scenario for the year, reaffirming Vietnam’s recovery trajectory.

One of the key growth engines was the textile and garment industry, which has shown a compelling turnaround after a prolonged slowdown. Export turnover in this sector reached $17.8 billion in the first five months, up 10 per cent on-year, signalling a global rebound in demand.

Figures from the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment show that agricultural exports reached $18.3 billion in the first half of 2025, up 16.8 per cent from the same period last year. This surge was driven largely by coffee, which brought in $5.5 billion, doubling the $2.7 billion figure recorded in the same period last year and already exceeding 2024’s full-year result of $5.4 billion. This marks the first time the coffee sector has achieved such a milestone in just six months.

A prime example of the recovery is TNG Investment and Trading JSC, which has reported its strongest performance since 2021. The company’s revenue in the first half of 2025 reached approximately $163 million, a 15 per cent increase on-year, achieving half of its annual plan. June revenue alone stood at $38.8 million, double the monthly average recorded earlier in the year.

According to FPT Securities, one of the core drivers behind TNG’s strong showing is its strategic shift from the traditional cut-make-trim model to first-tier free-on-board (FOB) production. This approach allows TNG to manage its entire supply chain from raw material sourcing to manufacturing and delivery, boosting both quality control and profitability.

The company reported that 85 per cent of its revenue now comes from FOB orders, with gross margins in this segment reaching 14-18 per cent, compared to the 10-12 per cent typically seen.

However, this transformation does not come without trade-offs. Under the FOB model, companies must bear upfront working capital costs, including sourcing raw materials and handling logistics. To address this, TNG’s board recently approved borrowing up to VND1.2 trillion ($45.78 million) from BIDV’s Thai Nguyen branch to support liquidity, issue letters of credit, and facilitate trade financing.

“The industry’s recovery is no longer isolated to a few firms,” said Mai Thu Hien, deputy general director of the Planning, Finance and Enterprise Reform Department under the MoIT. “We are seeing a broader pattern of adaptation and transformation across the sector. However, we are mindful that the challenges in the global trade environment remain significant.”

Indeed, while the first-half performance is encouraging, the road ahead is less predictable. To meet the full-year export target of $451 billion, representing a 12 per cent growth rate, Vietnam needs to sustain an average of $38.67 billion in export revenue per month. The MoIT acknowledges that such performance levels are demanding under current conditions.

“Maintaining export momentum at this scale is ambitious, particularly as global trade slows and protectionist policies are intensifying in several key markets,” Hien added. “But with early scenario planning, targeted market information, and stronger public-private coordination, we are still optimistic about achieving this year’s target.”

A new wave of trade defence measures also poses a threat to exporters. In the first five months of 2025 alone, there were 10 new trade remedy investigations launched against Vietnamese goods, with four more under preliminary review. These are in addition to over 100 existing trade defence actions already requiring periodic review. Legal costs for responding to such cases can go huge, creating a heavy burden for even the most established exporters.

On the global stage, the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report, published in June, warned of a slowdown in world trade due to tariff hikes and broader economic uncertainty. It projects global trade growth of just 1.8 per cent for 2025, a steep drop from the 3.4 per centt seen in 2024, and well below historical averages. This forecast only includes tariff measures in place up to the end of May, without factoring in expected retaliatory tariffs taking effect from July 9.

The MoIT is stepping up market surveillance and policy responses. In addition to supporting enterprises with updated information on market trends and compliance, the ministry is strengthening its guidance on rules of origin and anti-fraud measures. Trade promotion activities are also being enhanced to diversify export markets and adapt to evolving buyer behaviour.

Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Phan Thi Thang reiterated that free trade agreements will continue to serve as a key driver. “Vietnam’s network of such deals, especially those with major partners, offers significant leverage for export growth and investment,” she said. “Together with rising foreign investment and improved production capabilities, this foundation gives us reason to be confident in the long-term resilience of our export sector.”

Source: VIR