HIGH GROWTH AND MACROECONOMIC STABILITY KEY TARGETS IN 2026

Stronger domestic demand may push up imports, while export growth could face difficulties due to slower global economic growth, adding pressure to the exchange rate and consumer prices.

Shoppers at a supermarket in HCM City. — VNA/VNS Photo Hồng Đạt

HÀ NỘI — Pursuing high economic growth is an urgent task in the coming period, but experts have warned that Việt Nam must manage policies carefully to avoid sacrificing macroeconomic stability for growth targets, particularly as inflation risks rise alongside continued credit expansion.

In 2025, Việt Nam recorded GDP growth of 8.03 per cent while inflation was kept at 3.3 per cent. Looking ahead to 2026, inflationary pressure is expected to increase, mainly due to the delayed effects of credit growth, according to Nguyễn Đức Độ PhD, deputy director of the Institute of Economics and Finance.

He said credit growth in 2025 was not unusually high compared with the past decade, so its direct impact on inflation might be limited, especially as a significant share flowed into asset markets. However, the GDP growth target of 10 per cent in 2026 would still put pressure on prices, as strong growth would require a sharp rise in both investment and consumption.

The exchange rate was also expected to affect inflation in 2026. Stronger domestic demand might push up imports, while export growth could face difficulties due to slower global economic growth, adding pressure to the exchange rate and consumer prices.

Độ noted that inflation pressure from global commodity prices was likely to remain modest. With the world economy forecast to grow slowly, commodity prices are unlikely to rise sharply in 2026, although room for further declines is limited after a sharp fall in 2025, according to Độ. Interest rates rose slightly in 2025 as credit growth outpaced deposit growth. This trend may continue in 2026 and could help curb inflation.

Policy management

Lê Quốc Phương, PhD, former deputy director of the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s Industry and Trade Information Centre, said the factors supporting price stability in 2026 would be similar to those in 2025.

However, he warned that expansionary fiscal and monetary policies aimed at driving GDP growth of 10 per cent or more during 2026–2030 would create strong inflationary pressure.

He stressed that promoting high growth through rapid increases in investment must be closely controlled. Past experience showed that high growth combined with loose policies could lead to soaring inflation, followed by sharp policy tightening, economic slowdown, rising bad debts and business failures.

To achieve high growth while keeping inflation under control, Phương recommended avoiding aggressive easing of both fiscal and monetary policies at the same time. Fiscal policy should be expanded in a controlled manner, while monetary policy should remain cautious.

In the current context, he said credit growth limits should not yet be removed. Instead, the credit ceiling could be temporarily raised to a maximum of 20 per cent, along with measures to ensure credit flows into production and business activities that create real output and productivity, rather than into high-risk areas such as real estate, securities, gold or speculative activities.

Sharing a similar view, Độ said that although inflation pressure in 2026 might remain manageable, caution would still be needed, as monetary risks could build up if high credit growth continues for a long period. To achieve high GDP growth while keeping inflation below the 4–4.5 per cent target, he stressed the importance of close coordination between fiscal and monetary policies.

With the credit-to-GDP ratio already high, monetary policy should focus on maintaining macroeconomic stability, including controlling inflation, stabilising interest rates and exchange rates, containing bad debts and ensuring banking system safety.

Fiscal policy still has room to support growth, but faster disbursement of public investment is essential. In the long run, experts advised, high growth cannot rely on expanding money supply and credit, but must be driven by productivity gains based on technology and innovation. — VNS

Source: VNS