HCMC EYES GROWTH OF OVER 10% IN 2026

An aerial view of downtown HCMC - PHOTO: ARCHIVES

HCMC – HCMC recorded gross regional domestic product (GRDP) growth of 7.53% in 2025, supported by a strong rebound in the fourth quarter. On this basis, the city has outlined three growth scenarios for 2026, with the most ambitious expansion of more than 10%.

At a conference on January 6 reviewing socioeconomic performance in 2025 and outlining tasks for 2026, Nguyen Khac Hoang, head of the HCMC Statistics Office, said GRDP rose 9.03% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025. This marked the highest quarterly growth of the year, following increases of 5.81% in the first quarter, 7.24% in the second and 7.85% in the third.

Excluding oil and gas, fourth-quarter GRDP growth reached 9.12%, he said.

The steady acceleration showed that the city’s economic recovery had gained momentum, with growth improving from quarter to quarter as policy measures took effect.

For the full year, GRDP grew 7.53%. Excluding oil and gas, growth was higher at 8.03%. Although the result fell short of the city’s target, officials said the lower base could provide more room for stronger expansion in 2026, especially as the city’s new administrative governance model stabilizes.

Hoang said economic prospects for 2026 were more favorable, though the shift to a new growth model would take time and require new drivers. The Statistics Office projects growth of around 9–9.5% next year, while the city is aiming higher to build momentum for the 2025–2030 period.

To meet these targets, broad-based efforts will be needed across sectors. Agriculture is expected to grow by around 3%, industry by about 10% and services by roughly 10.5%. Total social investment is projected at around VND880 trillion. Public investment disbursement is expected to reach 100%, credit growth around 15%, and State budget revenue to rise by about 8%.

Three growth scenarios for 2026

With 2026 themed “Improving governance quality, unlocking institutions, making infrastructure breakthroughs and enhancing public service delivery,” HCMC has developed three economic growth scenarios.

Under the baseline scenario, the city targets growth of 8.5–9%, with total social investment equivalent to 24% of GRDP. A more ambitious scenario aims for 9.5% growth and investment of 25.8% of GRDP.

To achieve double-digit growth, the city has also outlined a high-growth scenario targeting 10% expansion. This scenario assumes favorable global conditions and early effectiveness of revised mechanisms under the National Assembly’s Resolution 98 on special policies and mechanisms for HCMC’s development, helping attract strategic investors. Under this plan, total investments in HCMC would rise to about 30% of GRDP.

Source: The Saigon Times