DEPOSIT INTEREST RATES FORECAST TO HIT BOTTOM IN Q1 2024

Deposit interest rates are unlikely to decrease further and might hit bottom in the first quarter of 2024 as credit demand will increase this year, analysts forecast.

In a macro report released last week, analysts of the MB Securities Company (MBS) believe that in the context of more positive growth of export and investment and consumption against last year, capital demand will return to balance instead of surplus as currently. They forecast that credit growth in 2024 will reach about 13-14 per cent.

However, MBS analysts believe the pressure to increase interest rates is not great because the US monetary tightening cycle has almost ended. With the forecast that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rate to approximately 4 per cent by the end of 2024, the pressure on the foreign exchange rate is not great that will help the State Bank of Vietnam to have room to maintain the current monetary policy.

"We forecast that 12-month deposit interest rates of large commercial banks will be able to move up by 25-50 basis points, returning to 5.25-5.5 per cent in 2024," MBS analysts said.

Some private banks have recently started to inch up interest rates mainly for short terms of less than five months to 2.5-3.8 per cent per year to attract more depositors after the Lunar New Year. As for 12-month deposits, the rate has fluctuated around 5 per cent per year.

State-owned banks have not yet shown any move to adjust interest rates and their average interest rate is currently still 4.7 per cent for a 12-month term.

In the interbank market, interest rates peaked on February 22 this year due to seasonality that put pressure on short-term liquidity and pushed up overnight interest rates to 3.7 per cent. However, right after that, the rates have gradually cooled down and returned to a low level. Overnight interest rate is currently listed at 1.4 per cent, down more than two-thirds from their peak and interest rates at other short terms of one month or less are currently quoted in the range of 1.5-2 per cent.

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) continued to inject money through the open market operation (OMO) channel last month. On February 20 and 21, the SBV injected more than VNĐ6 trillion through the OMO channel with an interest rate of 4 per cent per year and a seven-day term. This money matured and returned to the SBV.

Meanwhile, the SBV’s bill issuance channel had no transaction, showing that liquidity in the banking system has returned to a stable state.

Source: VNS

Related News

MEMBER CORNER / PROMOTIONS

VIETNAM'S MANUFACTURING STORY HAS CHANGED IN 2026

Vietnam is no longer attracting investment solely because of its competitive costs. Today, global manufacturers are increasingly choosing Vietnam for its expanding industrial ecosystem, resilient supply chains and growing role in high-value sectors such as semiconductors, electronics and advanced manufacturing.

Jul 24, 2026

BANKING / FINANCE / INSURANCE / TAX

VIETNAM NEEDS OVER $200BN FROM STOCK MARKET IN NEXT 5 YEARS

Speaking at the event, Bui Hoang Hai, vice-chairman of the State Securities Commission of Vietnam, said total investment demand in the 2026-30 period is estimated at VND38,000 trillion ($1.4 trillion). The state budget can only provide approximately VND8,500 trillion ($323 billion), or 20 percent, leaving the remaining 80 percent to be sourced from private and international capital.

Jul 23, 2026

VIETNAM ECONOMY INVESTMENT

HUNG YEN BUILDS DIGITAL FOUNDATIONS TO DRIVE LONG-TERM GROWTH

From strengthening data infrastructure to developing AI platforms, Hung Yen province is enhancing governance capacity while laying the groundwork for the growth of its digital economy. Hung Yen, about 50-60km southeast of Hanoi, has maintained steady momentum in implementing its digital transformation agenda, creating a stronger foundation for the province to advance science, technology, and innovation.

Jul 23, 2026

VIETNAM ECONOMY INVESTMENT

CHINESE INVESTMENT WAVE OPENS NEW DOORS

As Chinese companies move beyond factory relocation to ecosystem-driven investment, Vietnam has a rare opportunity to evolve from a low-cost production base into a strategic node in regional value chains. When global companies first diversified supply chains, the focus was largely on relocating manufacturing capacity.

Jul 23, 2026

VIETNAM ECONOMY INVESTMENT

VIỆT NAM STEPS UP EXPORT TO ACHIEVE US$550-BILLION TARGET

Việt Nam is intensifying efforts to sustain export momentum in the second half of 2026 as the country works towards its target of US$550 billion in export revenue for the year, despite continuing uncertainties in global trade. Statistics show that exports reached $266.5 billion in the first six months, meaning the economy needs to generate around $245.5 billion more during the remainder of the year to meet the annual goal.

Jul 23, 2026

VIETNAM ECONOMY INVESTMENT

ASIA POWERS VIETNAM’S SHRIMP BOOM, LEAVING THE WEST BEHIND

In the first half of 2026, Vietnam's shrimp exports surpassed the US$2.3 billion mark, driven largely by booming demand from China and a lobster craze. But behind that growth figure lies a lopsided picture: Asia is carrying the load, while the U.S. and Europe have yet to break out. These days, a container of frozen shrimp leaving a Ho Chi Minh City port is more likely to cross the East Vietnam Sea to Shanghai than the Pacific to Los Angeles.

Jul 23, 2026